Against the backdrop of growing expectations of a milder recession across the world, the IMF's forecasts for the UK stand out, downgraded by just under a full percentage point since the autumn, and now expected to shrink by 0.6% this year.The IMF attributes this to rapid interest rate rises, tax rises, higher borrowing costs for businesses and still high domestic energy prices. The Fund said the UK was having to navigate a very complex environment, and that since the Autumn Statement British policy was now "on the right track".

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